Bitcoin was priced at $80,036.60 on the morning of October 29, 2026, and at $77,380.93 a day later, a fall of 3.3% according to Fortune’s daily price tracker. Asking what affects bitcoin price in a week like that turns up two answers at once. Late on October 29, hackers drained Binance’s hot wallets, and the exchange put the damage at about $6.3 billion, the largest crypto theft on record. That story started and stayed inside crypto. On the same Friday morning, the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.1% as US tech stocks slid. Knowing which kind of driver is at work helps you make sense of the next big move on the chart.
Quick answer: What affects bitcoin price falls into two groups. Crypto-specific drivers include the fixed supply schedule, exchange security, regulation and money moving in and out of spot bitcoin ETFs. Outside drivers include interest rate expectations, the US dollar and the mood in stock markets, especially tech. On the biggest days, both groups can hit at once.
Trade Bitcoin’s Moves Up or Down
Crypto CFDs on SelfMSF let you take a position on bitcoin’s price rising or falling, in the same account you use for indices and forex.
A Year of Bitcoin Prices in Five Readings
Bitcoin hit its all-time high just over a year ago. Each reading was taken in the morning, US time.
| Date | Context | Bitcoin price |
|---|---|---|
| October 6, 2025 | All-time high | $126,198.07 |
| October 30, 2025 | A year earlier | $108,321.57 |
| October 8, 2026 | Early October | $82,622.04 |
| October 29, 2026 | The morning after the Fed’s meeting | $80,036.60 |
| October 30, 2026 | The morning after the Binance hack | $77,380.93 |
Figures from Fortune’s bitcoin price reports for October 8, 2026 and October 30, 2026.
At $77,380.93, bitcoin was about 39% under its peak. A slide that size rarely has one cause, and sorting what affects bitcoin price by where each driver starts makes it easier to follow.
What Affects Bitcoin Price Inside the Crypto Market
A Supply Schedule Written in Code
Only 21 million bitcoin will ever be created, and the number of new coins issued is cut in half roughly every four years. Since block 840,000 was mined in April 2024, each new block has paid miners 3.125 BTC in new coins, plus transaction fees. Because the schedule is public years in advance, supply rarely explains a sudden move by itself. Day to day, demand does most of the work.
Exchange Security
Much of crypto trading runs through a handful of big exchanges, and trouble at one can spread across the market within hours. The Binance attackers took 17,985 bitcoin among other assets, and the exchange paused withdrawals while it investigated.
Selling picked up as the news broke, and about $1.5 billion of leveraged crypto positions were closed out as prices dropped, according to The National. Forced closes like these add more selling into a falling market. Leverage increases both gains and losses, and in crypto it can make a sharp move sharper still.
Spot ETFs and Regulation
The SEC approved the first US spot bitcoin exchange-traded products on January 10, 2024. These funds hold bitcoin, and when investors pull money out, the funds can sell coins to pay them. US spot bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of $515 million in October 2026, their first negative month since June, including $643 million on October 30 alone.
The approval itself was a regulatory decision, and it opened bitcoin to people who only use regular brokerage accounts. Enforcement against a major exchange, or tighter rules in a large economy, can shrink the pool of buyers just as quickly.
What Affects Bitcoin Price Outside Crypto
Rate Expectations
Bitcoin pays no interest. When rates are expected to rise, cash and bonds pay more, and assets with no income tend to lose some of their appeal. On October 28, the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4% by a 10 to 2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting because they wanted an immediate rise. Traders then put the odds of at least a quarter-point hike in December at about 80%, according to CME FedWatch. Our guide to central bank decisions shows how one announcement can reach across markets.
The US Dollar
The dollar is part of what affects bitcoin price because the coin is mostly priced in dollars. A stronger dollar often goes hand in hand with tighter financial conditions around the world, and periods of dollar strength have often coincided with weaker crypto prices. Our article on gold and the dollar shows the same pull at work in metals.
Stock Market Mood
Many funds and traders hold bitcoin and tech shares side by side, and when they cut risk they can sell both. The IMF found that the correlation between bitcoin and S&P 500 price moves was 0.01 between 2017 and 2019, rising to 0.36 in 2020 and 2021. The link changes over time, but it shows up most clearly on stressful days like October 30, when tech shares and bitcoin fell together. Our article on index weighting explains how a few large tech companies can drag a whole index lower.
| Driver | Where it starts | Late 2026 example | How it can reach the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply schedule | Crypto | 3.125 BTC per block since April 2024 | Slowly, and known in advance |
| Exchange security | Crypto | $6.3 billion Binance hack | Fast selling and forced closes |
| ETF flows | Both | $515 million net outflow in October | Funds buying or selling coins |
| Interest rates | Outside | Fed holds at 3.75% to 4%, two votes for a hike | Changes the appeal of assets with no income |
| Tech stocks | Outside | Nasdaq Composite down 2.1% on the morning of October 30 | The same holders cutting risk in both |
Figures from The National, Cointelegraph, the Federal Reserve and The Motley Fool.
Why Bitcoin’s Price Swings So Far
Timing shapes how hard each part of what affects bitcoin price can hit. The coin trades every hour of every day, including weekends, when stock exchanges and most banks are closed. News that breaks on a Saturday reaches bitcoin first, often with fewer buyers and sellers around to absorb it.
The market is also smaller and younger than gold or major currencies, which is part of why crypto volatility runs high. Forced closes of borrowed positions can add to a fall, and the same thing can happen in reverse on the way up.
A Worked Example: One Day on the Bitcoin Chart
Say you’d opened a CFD on 0.1 BTC at $80,036.60 on the morning of October 29 and closed it at $77,380.93 the next morning. With a CFD you’re trading the price only and never own any bitcoin, as our guide to CFD trading explains. The example uses a margin of 50%, which matches the 2:1 leverage limit on retail crypto CFDs set by the EU’s markets regulator [CONFIRM: crypto margin and leverage on SelfMSF].
| Long 0.1 BTC | Short 0.1 BTC | |
|---|---|---|
| Opening price | $80,036.60 | $80,036.60 |
| Closing price | $77,380.93 | $77,380.93 |
| Position value at open | $8,003.66 | $8,003.66 |
| Margin at 50% | $4,001.83 | $4,001.83 |
| Result before costs | $265.57 loss | $265.57 gain |
| Share of margin | 6.6% loss | 6.6% gain |
Leverage increases both gains and losses, because the result is worked out on the full $8,003.66 position. The spread and any overnight financing would come off both results [CONFIRM: crypto CFD costs on SelfMSF].
Neither trader needed to see the hack coming for the position to move. What affects bitcoin price on a day like this can arrive from two directions within 24 hours, and our risk management guide covers how traders size positions for it.
Key Takeaways
- What affects bitcoin price includes crypto-specific news, like exchange hacks and ETF flows, and outside forces like interest rates and tech stocks.
- The supply schedule is fixed and public, which means sudden moves usually come from changes in demand.
- Expectations of higher interest rates can weigh on bitcoin, because it pays no income.
- Bitcoin has tended to move more closely with stocks since 2020, especially on stressful days.
- Crypto prices can be highly volatile, and leverage increases both gains and losses on crypto CFDs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does bitcoin go up and down so much?
Bitcoin goes up and down a lot because its price depends almost entirely on demand, which shifts quickly with news and sentiment. It trades every day of the week, including weekends when other markets are closed, and borrowed money is common in crypto trading. When prices move fast, forced closes of those positions can push them further.
Does bitcoin move with the stock market?
Bitcoin often moves with the stock market, especially tech shares, though the link changes over time. The IMF measured a correlation of 0.01 between bitcoin and the S&P 500 in 2017 to 2019, and 0.36 in 2020 and 2021. The two tend to fall together most clearly on days when investors are cutting risk.
How do interest rates affect bitcoin?
Higher interest rates can weigh on bitcoin because it pays no interest, which makes cash and bonds relatively more attractive when rates rise. Expectations count as much as decisions. In October 2026 the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4%, but two officials voted for a hike, and traders raised their odds of a December increase.
Do bitcoin ETFs affect the price of bitcoin?
Spot bitcoin ETFs can affect the price because they hold real bitcoin. When investors add money, the funds can buy coins, and when investors withdraw, the funds can sell. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $515 million in October 2026, including $643 million on October 30, the day after the Binance hack.